This model, developed and maintained by an interdisciplinary team from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania, alongside global experts, includes 789 U.S. counties, but the team is only projecting for those that see more than five daily cases on average consecutively for two weeks. The model also includes case counts and test positivity rates for every county in the U.S. to help inform school health and safety plans, as well as the percent of ICU beds occupied by adult and pediatric COVID-19 patients in each state.
Utilizing data from a variety of publicly available sources, the researchers built their model to observe how social distancing, population density, county-level vaccination rates, and daily temperatures affect the number and spread of COVID-19 infections over time across a county, accounting for test positivity rates and population characteristics, such as age, insurance status and smoking prevalence. For social distancing, which the researchers have shown is the most important factor in reducing transmission, the model uses cell phone movement data. For more information on this project, click here.
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