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Projected Cases for 4 Weeks
Projected Cases with Roll-back Scenarios
Social Distancing Over Time
Map of Current Cases
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We measure social distancing as the percentage change in travel to non-essential businesses, as compared to normal activity before the pandemic. We calculate travel to non-essential businesses using cellphone GPS data from Unacast.
COVID-Lab: Mapping COVID-19 in Your Community was developed by an interdisciplinary team from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania, alongside global experts, to track and project the COVID-19 epidemic across 747 counties with active outbreaks as it spreads across the United States, accounting for daily temperatures, social distancing and population density. Confirmed and projected cases are shown for select counties, along with the reproduction number (R). For every COVID-19 case, R estimates the number of additional individuals infected. For more information on how we estimated R, see the desktop version of this feature.
An interdisciplinary team from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania, alongside global experts, are tracking and projecting the COVID-19 epidemic across 747 counties with active outbreaks as it spreads across the United States. Utilizing data from a variety of publicly available sources, the researchers built their model to observe how social distancing, population density, and daily temperatures affect the number and spread of COVID-19 infections over time across a county, accounting for test positivity rates and population characteristics, such as age, insurance status and smoking prevalence. For social distancing, which the researchers have shown is most important factor in reducing transmission, the model uses cell phone movement data. For the latest comments on our findings from the lead researchers, read this blog post, to learn how the research team validates this model to ensure accurate projections, read this blog post, and to learn more about the methods behind this model, see this abstract. For more information on this project, click here or contact Dr. David Rubin (RUBIN@email.chop.edu).
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