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Returning visitor? Please note that as community transmission has declined throughout the U.S., our weekly COVID-19 projections have stopped as of May 19, 2021. However, we will update our modeling forecasts if conditions change and expect to continue providing periodic guidance. New to COVID-Lab? See below for more information on this model.
Test Positivity Rate & Case Counts by County
The “Test Positivity Rate & Case Counts by County” tab will be updated every Wednesday, but as trends continue to improve nationwide, these weekly updates will eventually end as well. Our researchers will carry on monitoring community transmission and expect to update the model during important moments in time.
Additionally, the team anticipates blogging occasionally during the summer to update their guidance as communities prepare for the upcoming school year. Be sure to revisit our website, follow us on social media for the latest updates, and click here to subscribe to our bi-weekly newsletter to be notified via email when the model is updated.
COVID-Lab basics
The model was developed and maintained by an interdisciplinary team from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania to observe how social distancing, population density, and daily temperatures affect the number and spread of COVID-19 infections over time across a county, accounting for test positivity rates and population characteristics. Between April 2020 and May 2021, COVID-Lab offered four-week case incidence projections for as many as 821 counties, representing 82% of the U.S. population across all 50 states and Washington D.C. For more information on this project, click here.