Through this model, an interdisciplinary team from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania, alongside global experts, are projecting COVID-19 case counts across 817 U.S. counties with active outbreaks. The model now also includes cases counts and test positivity rates for every county in the United States to help inform school reopening strategies.
Utilizing data from a variety of publicly available sources, the researchers built their model to observe how social distancing, population density, and daily temperatures affect the number and spread of COVID-19 infections over time across a county, accounting for test positivity rates and population characteristics, such as age, insurance status and smoking prevalence. For social distancing, which the researchers have shown is the most important factor in reducing transmission, the model uses cell phone movement data. For more information on this project, click here or contact Dr. David Rubin (RUBIN@email.chop.edu).
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